Experts predict that a "thinking" computer will be commonplace by about 2020. Artificial Intelligence, or AI, will have vast applications in medicine, space projects, manufacturing, and defense. "It" will be able to speak, to reason, to make choices, to repair itself, and to creatively solve problems. We'll have robotics to cook and clean the house, and nanorobots to perform surgery from within the human body. AIs will operate nanofactories¹, also expected to be functional in the 2020s. Scientists are even working on "intelligent cars" which will chauffeur us to work on electronic highways.

But AI is not a future technology. It's here now, and it's impacting almost every aspect of our lives. "Pattern recognition" is routinely used in medical labs to find and diagnose tuberculosis, ulcers, certain heart conditions, some prostate and ovarian cancers, and even to check for allergies to medications. AIs are deeply embedded in our banking systems, the stock markets, business platforms, and the military.

But these AIs are what Dr. Ray Kurzweil, a leader in the field, calls "narrow." HAL and the future AIs are called "strong." The difference? Strong AIs will be able to learn. Narrow AIs are programmed. Strong AIs will teach what they know to other AIs. They will have intuitive communication skills, and self-organizing systems.

"...the brain differs in a number of important ways from that of conventional, contemporary computers," writes Dr. Kurzweil in Will Machines Become Conscious?, from www.kurzweilai.net. "If you open up your Palm Pilot and cut a wire, there's a good chance you will break the machine. Yet we routinely lose many neurons and interneuronal connections with no ill effect, because the brain is self-organizing and relies on distributed patterns in which many specific details are not important."

The turning point in moving from narrow AIs to strong AIs will, according to Dr. Kurzweil, be determined by the AI's ability to pass what's called the Turing Test. This test measures the entity's grasp of language, reason, vision, creative thought, problem solving, and movement. It also measures its ability to think up alternative solutions, if the first solution doesn't work. "...there is no simple means to pass a Turing test," writes Dr. Kurzweil in his book The Singularity is Near, "other than to convincingly emulate the flexibility, subtlety, and suppleness of human intelligence." He explains, "The Turing test is important not so much for its practical significance but rather because it will demarcate a crucial threshold."²

How will we get to this point? Scientists and engineers are actually "reverse-engineering" the human brain. By the year 2020, Kurzweil expects that every part of the human brain will be mapped, modules will be created - and simulations will be possible.

There are other areas of AI research besides reverse brain engineering, but Kurzweil feels this is the tipping point that will allow the AI to pass the Turing test.

2020 is fast approaching. By the 2030s, AIs could be rapidly absorbing knowledge about all aspects of human civilization. And by the 2040s, there's a good chance we'll see the beginning of a "merge" between humans and AIs. Does this mean HAL will then be a reality? We'll just have to wait and see.

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¹ Nanofactory animation designed and created by animator John Burch of Lizardfire Studios, and Dr. Eric Drexler of Nanorex, Inc.

² http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0683.html (Dr. Kurzweil's article Why We Can Be Confident of Turing Test Capability Within a Quarter Century)